Institutional anomie, religious ecologies, and violence in American communities

Institutional anomie theory (IAT) posits that religion is a social institution that influences crime, yet religion has been relatively neglected in empirical research on IAT. We elaborate the role of religion within IAT, methodologically differentiate religious traditions, and empirically test hypotheses regarding local religious ecologies and community homicide over time in the United States. In analyses of county-level panel data, we find that increases in the evangelical Protestant adherent rate are directly associated with increases in homicide rates, while increases in the Catholic adherent rate are directly associated with decreases in homicide rates. Using spatial analysis to examine spillover effects from adjacent locations, increases in the Catholic adherent rate and the evangelical Protestant adherent rate are indirectly associated with increases in homicide, while increases in the mainline Protestant adherent rate are indirectly associated with decreases in homicide. The total effect (both direct and indirect) for changes in the evangelical Protestant adherent rate is the largest in the model. In sum, elaborating and extending IAT, this study theorizes and then demonstrates the importance of differentiating between specific religious traditions for understanding spatial and temporal patterns in crime.