The 2023 Tennessee Hazard Mitigation Plan Update: An Overview of the Risk and Vulnerability Assessments for Climatological Hazards

The 2023 Tennessee Hazard Mitigation Plan Update: An Overview of the Risk and Vulnerability Assessments for Climatological Hazards Objective: Provide an overview of the 2023 update of Tennessee's hazard mitigation plan and select county-level hazard mitigation plans, with a focus on the primary climatological hazards. In collaboration with the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, the Tennessee Climate Office at East Tennessee State University developed the risk and vulnerability assessment component of the 2023 Tennessee State Hazard Mitigation Plan update. Complying with the latest FEMA guidelines, these plans now incorporate insights into how climate trends and developmental shifts may impact future hazard risks. This undertaking employs diverse and innovative risk/vulnerability assessment methods, integrating spatiotemporal analysis to discern trends and fluctuations related to six primary natural hazards in Tennessee: drought, extreme temperatures, floods, severe storms (including winter storms), tornadoes, and wildfires. A comprehensive approach involves sourcing the best available data from entities such as the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Storm Events Database, Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Atlas 14, US Forest Service, National Integrated Drought Information System, as well as various federal and non-federal sources. Historical probability of occurrence is determined through density estimation, while trend analysis at the county level and the utilization of space-time cubes reveal variations spanning the period from 1996 to 2021/22, identifying emerging hotspots. Additionally, climate projection data from multiple sources are integrated to assess potential future changes specific to each hazard. Sharing of products and examples from these initiatives is the focus of ongoing collaboration between TEMA and the TCO, emphasizing the pivotal role of geospatial analysis and climate data/services in the context of emergency management. Learning Objectives: 1. Understand the methodology and data sources used in Tennessee to develop climate hazard risk assessments. 2. Interpret trends in climatological hazards to better understand possible statewide and local impacts or changes. 3. Evaluate the collaborative efforts between TEMA and the TCO and gain insight on future climate-related projects.